Authors
Roberto Cerina
Raymond Duch
Date (dd-mm-yyyy)
2025-04
Title
The 2024 US Presidential Election PoSSUM Poll
Journal
PS - Political Science and Politics
Volume
58
Publication Year
2025-04
Pages
286-297
Issue number
2
Document type
Article
Abstract

The initial predictions presented in this article confirm that presidential candidate vote-share estimates based on AI polling are broadly exchangeable with those of other polling organizations. We present our first two biweekly vote-share estimates for the 2024 US presidential election and benchmark them against those being generated by other polling organizations. Our post-Democratic National Convention top-line estimates for Trump (47%) and Harris (46%) closely track measurements generated by other polls during the month of August. The subsequent early September (post-debate) PoSSUM vote-share estimates for Trump (47%) and Harris (48%) again closely track with other national polling being conducted in the United States. An ultimate test for the PoSSUM polling method will be the final preelection vote-share results that we publish before Election Day on November 5, 2024.

URL
go to publisher's site
Note
In special issue: Forecasting the 2024 US Election.
Permalink
https://hdl.handle.net/11245.1/608115c2-1cc1-4186-98cb-ba904ec8d569